Tracking the latest trends in the US consumer behaviour

Monday, October 12, 2009

I have found a very useful way to track in an almost real-time way the behaviour and the appetite of the US consumer using the Google Domestic Trends . Capitalizing on its notoriety, Google Domestic Trends track Google search traffic across specific sectors of the economy. Changes in the search volume of a given sector on may provide unique economic insight.

The 23 sectors tracked are the following ones (please click on the link to download the chart):

It could be very interesting to manage a correlation analysis with real economic indicators published on a monthly basis in order to check for the predictive abilities of those series. This analysis is coming as soon as I will be able to find some time on my agenda.

With all the cautiousness required without such a statistical analysis, we can observe a stabilization of the trends at a very low level (except for unemployement and the search for a job). Regarding consumer buying intentions, it confirms the stabilization at a low level of the ABC Consumer Index. No V-shape recovery in the buying mood of the US consumer recorded in early october (this is not a scoop). Welcome in the era of frugality! The best way to raise the buying power of the underemployed US consumer is to drop prices. Isn't it?

I don't hold any Google shares for my own account or for the funds I manage.

4 commentaires:

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